Shipment freezes and quotation suspensions: What's happening in the resistor and MLCC market?

In the last week of May, the passive components market suddenly went "wild." Price increase letters continued to fly, rumors of order suspensions emerged, and Goldman Sachs issued a major warning that "MLCC could be the next supply bottleneck in the AI supply chain." These forces combined to push sentiment in the resistor and capacitor market to its peak. Some people even exclaimed, "This is even more exaggerated than the last passive component surge in 2018."

At the same time, however, some voices pointed out that actual shipment volumes had not increased correspondingly.

By reading this article, you will learn: What is really happening in the resistor and capacitor market right now? How did this price surge come about? What are the possible reasons?

01 What is happening in the market right now?

First of all, the suspension of price quotations does exist. Many chip distributors have said that since around last week, suppliers have been reluctant to provide them with quotations.

One passive components agent explained that the main reason is that the original manufacturers need to adjust prices and the market is too volatile, making it difficult to quote. Therefore, they have suspended order taking and quoting, and will resume after the original manufacturers and internal adjustments are completed. Another passive components distributor mentioned that they stopped taking orders and quoting last Friday and expect to resume in the first two days of this week.

Some distributors have observed that last week's suspension mainly affected resistors, while capacitors were more a case of "shortage." In the past couple of days, resistor order taking has gradually resumed.

On the other hand, both resistors and capacitors have seen sharp price increases.

Let's look at resistors first. At the end of last year, domestic passive component manufacturers issued a flurry of price increase letters, most of which came from resistor manufacturers. This led to a phenomenon around New Year's Day where the spot market for passive components saw suspended quotations and price increases.

After New Year's Day, the overall price of resistors rose by about 10-20% compared to before the holiday, with the main affected models being 0201-1206. Initially, quotations were somewhat chaotic, with increases ranging from ten-plus percentage points to thirty points, and some niche or tight models even higher. However, after a week, price fluctuations gradually diminished and then stabilized.

Now, some distributors say that resistor prices rose another 10 percentage points last week.

During the New Year's wave of passive component increases, capacitor prices overall did not increase much, but some distributors said that individual tight models such as polymer tantalum capacitors and high-capacitance high-voltage ceramic capacitors remained in short supply.

High-capacitance capacitors have continued their upward trend without abating. After May, even regular capacitor materials began to see price increases, and in the last one to two weeks of May, the increase was astonishing. From the last week of May until now, many distributors have reported that "capacitor prices change every day," "prices doubled in one day," and some materials "rose 2 to 5 times, even more for high-capacitance ones." Some distributors even say that foreign goods are now cheaper than domestic ones. At the same time, Xin Shixiang also found that due to the rapid price changes, few people seem to be able to say exactly how much capacitor prices have increased during the verification process.

Overall, in the current spot market, capacitors seem to have a louder "voice" than resistors, with even more dramatic increases.

However, some people also mention that the actual price increases from agents and original manufacturers are not that exaggerated; the same material quoted by a major agent is only about 15 percentage points higher than in March, but the market price has already doubled.

Besides price increases, "shortages" are also an unavoidable topic in this round. Some distributors say they see many listings on websites, but when they ask, there is no stock, and the seller says "it's been swept clean." Some also say that capacitors are so scarce now that parts with 2022 date codes are being sold.

Amidst such a "crazy" situation, some people sense something unusual. Some share that most of the goods are just being moved around within the market, and the actual volume reaching end customers does not seem that high. Some agents also say that their transaction volume with customers in May actually decreased compared to April.

Overall, this round of passive component market activity is indeed very hot, with some even saying it is more exaggerated than the 2018 passive component surge. However, although everyone can feel the sharp rise in capacitors and resistors, due to the wide variety of passive component types and brands, each person's perception of the specific increase range and scope is slightly different. Moreover, since we are still in a relatively "frenzied" period, the subsequent changes still need to be observed.

02 From price increase letters to "order suspension": How did the resistor and capacitor market surge come about?

This round of passive component price increases did not appear out of nowhere, but rather started in the second half of 2025 and has been spreading ever since.

Here is a brief summary of the pace:

- Q4 2025: In November, Tai-Tech took the lead in raising prices of magnetic beads by more than 15% and began production cuts. Then in December, a number of domestic thick-film/chip resistor manufacturers such as Fujie, Heketai, and Changlong Technology collectively issued price increase letters, with increases mostly in the 8%-20% range.
- Q1 2026: Price increases spread from small and medium-sized factories to industry leaders — Fenghua Hi-Tech, Walsin, and Yageo followed one after another. In February, Yageo directly raised chip resistor prices by 15%-20%.
- Entering Q2: Major Japanese and Korean manufacturers officially entered the scene. Murata raised prices on AI server and high-end automotive MLCC by 15%-35% in April. Samsung Electro-Mechanics raised prices across its entire MLCC series by 5%-10% in April. Taiyo Yuden raised prices on multiple product lines in May. Yageo Kemet began price increases again from June, with cumulative increases reaching 65% from last year to this year.

Overall, price increases started with small and medium-sized domestic manufacturers, followed by industry leaders, and then major Japanese and Korean manufacturers, spreading from resistors and magnetic beads to MLCC.

However, what truly pushed resistors and capacitors into the spotlight may not have been these price increase letters, but the recent rumors of "order suspension," which were the direct trigger for the outbreak of this resistor and capacitor market surge.

On May 27 (last Wednesday), the Commercial Times reported that Fenghua had fully suspended new orders for domestic agent specifications of 0402 and 0603 chip resistors and MLCC. As soon as the news came out, market sentiment was instantly ignited. However, Fenghua subsequently issued an announcement clarifying on June 1: "Full suspension of order taking" is not true; in fact, only some products were temporarily postponed, and as of the announcement date, they have resumed. The postponement was for digital system upgrades and product structure adjustments.

On May 29, the market began to see order suspensions. According to currently available information, some people added that the relevant news first came from agents.

With the groundwork laid by price increase letters and the rumors of order suspension meeting an eager market and speculative sentiment, the spark of price increases began to spread instantly. Looking closely, besides the direct factors mentioned above, there are respective reasons for the resistor and capacitor price increases.

Let's start with resistors.

The first thing that couldn't hold up was raw material costs. Silver paste is a core material for resistors, inductors, and magnetic beads. The surge in silver prices became the direct trigger.

According to data from TEJ Taiwan Economic News, the London silver fixing price rose sharply from $36.2 per ounce in July 2025 to $103.2 per ounce in January 2026, a nearly 185% increase in half a year. Considering that silver paste accounts for more than 50% of the material cost of multilayer inductors and magnetic beads, one can imagine the cost pressure on resistors and inductors. Copper prices have also risen, from an average of $9,000 per ton in 2024 to $13,370 per ton, a 49% increase.

Unable to bear the cost pressure, production cuts began. Starting in December last year, some second-tier resistor manufacturers such as Fujie Electronics began to cut production to reduce losses.

The path to price increases for MLCC, on the other hand, is a bit more complex because it involves the big variable: AI.

During the New Year's wave of passive component increases, MLCC overall did not rise much, only tight models such as polymer tantalum capacitors and high-capacitance high-voltage ceramic capacitors saw noticeable increases. But starting in May, even regular MLCC began to rise broadly. Behind this, there are mainly three possible reasons:

First, reduced arrivals to agents plus channel sentiment brewing. Some agents have said that their arrival volumes in recent months have decreased by varying degrees.

Second, major Japanese and Korean manufacturers have shifted production capacity toward the high end, reducing the supply flexibility for consumer-grade products. According to the latest survey by TrendForce, the strong demand for AI chips has led to tight supply and demand for high-end MLCC, and has compressed the supply of consumer-grade MLCC, prompting some agents to engage in preventive stockpiling, to which suppliers have responded with price adjustments.

Third, the major warnings from Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. First, around May 20, Morgan Stanley conducted a bill-of-materials teardown of NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin platform, and found that the MLCC value per rack jumped from $1,530 for GB300 to $4,320 for VR200, a surge of 182%, ranking second among all components (just behind PCB at +233%). Goldman Sachs was even more direct, calling MLCC the "next supply bottleneck" in the AI supply chain. They estimated that AI server demand for MLCC will grow about 4.3 times from fiscal 2025 to 2030, while industry production capacity grows only slightly above 10% per year.

In summary, this round of resistor and capacitor market surge is driven by multiple factors including rising silver prices, growing AI demand, channel hoarding, and rumors of order suspension. Market sentiment continues to heat up. Combined with Morgan Stanley's "next supply bottleneck" judgment, the saying of "next memory" has also begun to circulate in the market.

However, whether the rally can continue still depends on two core issues: First, whether end customers can absorb the current price increases and increase their stocking. Spot prices are rising quickly, and some distributors have already noted that customers are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Second, whether the structural differentiation between high-end and standard products can persist. The current supply tightness is mainly concentrated in AI-related high-end MLCC and tantalum capacitors; the trend for regular materials still needs further observation.