Storage Market to Surge 249.5% in 2026, but What About Next Year?

On June 2, 2026, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) released its forecasts for the semiconductor market in 2026 and 2027. In its previous forecast released in December 2025, the organization had projected a growth rate of 26.3% year-on-year for 2026, but this has now been significantly revised upward to 89.9% year-on-year. Looking at semiconductor market conditions through April 2026, shipments to date have been moving at a staggering growth rate of 87.1% year-on-year, making the upward revision only natural.

However, how one views the growth of the storage market in the second half of 2026 will greatly affect this forecast. The same applies to the forecast of 26.6% growth for 2027 compared to 2026. The author would like to sort out their views on the future of the storage market while considering the outlook ahead.

01 Discretes / Optoelectronics / Sensors

For discretes, the 2026 forecast is for 8.9% year-on-year growth. The previous forecast was 8.2%, so this is a slight upward revision. Based on actual performance from January to April 2026, which showed 15.4% year-on-year growth, this forecast seems somewhat conservative. Since year-on-year growth remained in double digits through April 2026, a more optimistic view might be possible.

However, a point of concern is that in the power transistor market, which accounts for more than half of this segment, the unit prices of IGBTs and MOSFETs continue to decline. Although a 7.6% year-on-year growth is forecast for 2027, if the pace of unit price decline accelerates, the market situation could become even more severe.

For optoelectronics, the 2026 market size is forecast to grow 2.7% year-on-year. This is a downward revision from the previous forecast of 5.7% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed 12.4% year-on-year growth, but the forecast indicates that the growth momentum will weaken thereafter. This market had maintained double-digit positive growth for four consecutive months from December 2025, but suddenly dropped to single-digit growth in April 2026. Incidentally, about half of the optoelectronics market consists of image sensors, which had also maintained positive growth for 11 consecutive months but turned negative in April 2026.

Considering the decline in smartphone production due to soaring storage prices, this downward revision seems reasonable. The forecast for 2027 is 5.0% year-on-year growth, a figure that appears unobjectionable. Since changes in the number of image sensors mounted per smartphone will significantly impact the market outlook, it is necessary to monitor this trend closely.

For sensors, the 2026 market growth forecast is 3.0% year-on-year. This is a downward revision from the previous forecast of 8.7% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed 2.8% year-on-year growth, and this level of growth is expected to continue. The sensor market has maintained single-digit year-on-year positive growth since August 2025; prior to that, it had seen double-digit growth, so at best it is flattening out, and from a negative perspective, it seems to be losing some momentum.

In terms of volume, the market continues to grow steadily, but due to a declining trend in average unit prices, the current growth rate is slowing. If this trend continues, the growth rate for 2026 is likely to remain below 5%, making this forecast reasonable. The author personally has no particular objection to the forecast of 6.9% year-on-year growth for 2027.

02 Analog / Microprocessors / Logic

The IC market can be categorized into analog, microprocessors, logic, and memory.

The 2026 analog market forecast is 10.2% year-on-year growth. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 7.5% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed 15.4% year-on-year growth, and the forecast indicates a slight slowdown thereafter. This market has consistently maintained double-digit year-on-year positive growth since October 2025, showing very stable market dynamics. In February 2026, Analog Devices (ADI) decisively raised prices on its general-purpose analog ICs by 10-15%, a move that seems to have influenced market trends. The WSTS forecast is probably slightly conservative. Although the forecast for 2027 is 6.6% year-on-year growth, the author expects growth closer to 10%.

The microprocessor market's 2026 growth forecast is 19.8% year-on-year. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 13.9% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed 20.6% year-on-year growth, and this growth rate is expected to be largely maintained. In the MPU market, which accounts for more than half of the microprocessor market, actual performance from January to April 2026 showed growth exceeding 20% year-on-year. While PC demand, a major application area, remains steady, demand for servers is increasing, and this trend is expected to continue.

On the other hand, the MCU market's actual performance from January to April 2026, while lower than that of MPUs, maintained double-digit positive growth. This is believed to be due to the strong performance of the automotive MCU market. Therefore, the author predicts that, as WSTS forecasts, the overall microprocessor market is likely to achieve growth of around 20% in 2026. Although the forecast for 2027 is 20.0% year-on-year growth, if data center demand remains robust, this level of growth is entirely achievable.

The logic market's 2026 growth forecast is 37.3% year-on-year. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of 32.1% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed extremely strong growth of 42.2% year-on-year. Although the forecast indicates a slight slowdown thereafter, the author believes maintaining a growth rate of over 40% is entirely possible.

The reason for the logic market's strong performance is the sustained explosive demand for GPUs for AI servers. NVIDIA, which effectively dominates this market, accounts for more than 70% of the entire logic market. NVIDIA's growth rate for the February–April 2026 period was 85.2% year-on-year, so the overall market growing at over 40% is an inevitable outcome. The forecast for 2027 is 27.1% year-on-year growth, but the author finds this somewhat incongruous.

NVIDIA's outstanding order backlog has exceeded $1 trillion, and the company's CEO has commented that this figure is trending upward. Considering this, it is unlikely that NVIDIA's sales will slow down, and it is highly possible that the entire logic chip market will maintain a growth rate of over 40%.

03 How Long Will the Fever in the Storage Market, Growing 249%, Last?

The 2026 storage market growth forecast is 249.5% year-on-year. This is a significant upward revision from the previous forecast of 39.4% growth. Actual performance from January to April 2026 showed 264.8% year-on-year growth, and the forecast expects this astonishing growth rate to continue through the end of 2026.

After recording 50.6% year-on-year growth in September 2025, the storage market achieved 160.2% year-on-year growth in January 2026 and 359.1% in April 2026, setting unprecedented growth rates. It is worth noting that neither DRAM nor NAND flash memory has seen a significant increase in bit shipments; rather, it is the abnormal rise in average unit prices that has created this growth rate.

DRAM shortages have become severe since the October–December quarter of 2025, even affecting PC and smartphone production volumes. However, considering that capital investment by the top three DRAM manufacturers has undoubtedly reached record levels, the author believes that the supply-demand balance may change sometime in 2026.

On the other hand, NAND flash memory entered a shortage state in the January–March quarter of 2026. On this front, demand grew rapidly because Kioxia launched high-speed SSDs into the market in the January–March quarter of 2026. SanDisk is also expected to launch high-speed SSDs within 2026, but they will also use Kioxia-manufactured NAND flash. In contrast, the top three DRAM manufacturers have prioritized investment in DRAM, leaving NAND product development and investment behind, and they appear unable to ship high-speed SSDs within the year. The author predicts that the supply-demand balance for NAND flash memory will likely not ease until the second half of 2027 or later.

Synthesizing the above, the 2026 storage market forecast of over 200% year-on-year growth seems reasonable. On the other hand, while the forecast for 2027 is 32.1% year-on-year growth, the author believes that negative growth is even possible.

The rise in DRAM unit prices is at an abnormal level, and the author believes such a situation cannot continue for a long time. If any sign of even a slight easing in the DRAM supply-demand balance appears within 2026, the currently (believed) greatly inflated artificial demand may shrink all at once. Although the situation is extremely difficult to predict, the author's forecast is that the DRAM market will enter a downturn in 2027, and the NAND flash market will enter a downturn in 2028.

04 Where Is the Semiconductor Market, Increasingly Dependent on Storage, Headed?

Overall, the WSTS forecast of an 89.9% growth rate for the semiconductor market in 2026 is reasonable, but the author finds it somewhat difficult to agree with the 26.6% growth rate for 2027.

The author frankly believes that as the storage market slows, overall growth will remain at a low level. While aware that predicting "negative growth in 2027" is likely a minority view given the current extraordinary heat in the storage market, the author hopes to closely monitor future developments.